With the votes now being counted in New Brunswick's provincial election, early results indicate that Conservative David Alward is the new Premier in a crushing defeat of Liberal incumbent Shawn Graham. As of 8pm eastern time, the Tories have pulled 50% of the popular vote, up from the 47% collected in 2006 by Bernard Lord. The federal Tories scored 39% of the popular vote in NB during the 2008 federal election. Does this victory signal part of a greater surge in Conservative support throughout the Atlantic provinces? The Tories already hold a majority of the NB seats in Ottawa, and only have 1-3 additional seats to possibly gain if only New Brunswick is shifting to the right.
The Tories are weaker in Newfoundland (17% in 2008) and Nova Scotia (26% in 2008), and those will have to be where the gains are made if the party would like to add a significant number of Atlantic seats.